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Various measures of forecast quality are analyzed for 2-m temperature seasonal forecasts over Europe from global and regional model ensembles for winter and summer seasons during the period 1991 to 2001. The 50-km Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is used to dynamically downscale nine-member ensembles of ECMWF global experimental seasonal forecasts. Three sets of RegCM3 experiments with different soil moisture initializations are performed: the RegCM3 default initial soil moisture, initial soil moisture taken from ECMWF seasonal forecasts, and initial soil moisture obtained from RegCM3 ECMWF interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)-driven integrations (RegCM3 climatology). Both deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics are estimated.The better-resolved spatial scales in near-surface temperature by RegCM3 do not necessarily lead to the improved regional model skill in the regions where systematic errors are large. The impact of initial soil moisture on RegCM3 forecast skill is seen in summer in the sout...

Skill of 2-m Temperature Seasonal Forecasts over Europe in ECMWF and RegCM Models