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A total of 62 winter storm events in the period 1964-1999 and over the Folsom Lake watershed located at the windward slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains were simulated with a 9-km resolution using the mesoscale model MM5. Mean areal precipitation (MAP) over the entire watershed and each of four sub-basins was estimated based on gridded simulated precipitation. The simulated MAP was verified with MAP estimated (a) by the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) for the four sub-basins based on 8 operational precipitation stations, and (b), for the period from 1980 to 1986, on the basis of a denser precipitation observing network deployed by the Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project (SCPP). A number of sensitivity runs were performed to understand dependence of model precipitation on boundary and initial fields, cold vs. warm start, and microphysical parameterization. The principal findings of the validation analysis are: (a) the MM5 model achieves a good percentage bias score of 103% in simulating Folsom basin MAP when compared to MAP derived from dense precipitation gauge networks; (b) spatial grid resolution higher than 9 km is necessary to reproduce the spatial MAP pattern among sub-basins of the Folsom basin; (c) the model performs better for heavy than for light and moderate precipitation. The analysis also showed significant simulation dependence on the spatial resolution of the boundary and initial fields and on the microphysical scheme used.

Validation and Sensitivities of Dynamic Precipitation Simulation for Winter Events over the Folsom Lake Watershed: 1964–99