English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Equatorial East Africa (EEA) suffers from significant flood risks. These can be mitigated with preemptive action; however, currently available early warnings are limited to a few days’ lead time. Extending warnings using subseasonal climate forecasts could open a window for more extensive preparedness activity. However, before these forecasts can be used, the basis of their skill and relevance for flood risk must be established. Here we demonstrate that subseasonal forecasts are particularly skillful over EEA. Forecasts can skillfully anticipate weekly upper-quintile rainfall within a season, at lead times of 2weeks and beyond.Wedemonstrate the linkbetween theMadden–Julian oscillation (MJO) andextreme rainfall events in the region, and confirm that leading forecast models accurately represent the EEA teleconnection to the MJO. The relevance of weekly rainfall totals for fluvial flood risk in the region is investigated using a long record of streamflow from theNzoiaRiver in western Kenya. Both heavy rainfall and high antecedent rainfall conditions are identified as key drivers of flood risk, with upper-quintile weekly rainfall shown to skillfully discriminate flood events. We additionally evaluate GloFAS global flood forecasts for the Nzoia basin. Though these are able to anticipate some flooding events with several weeks lead time, analysis suggests action based on these would result in a false alarm more than 50% of the time. Overall, these results build on the scientific evidence base that supports the use of subseasonal forecasts in EEA, and activities to advance their use are discussed.

Drivers and Subseasonal Predictability of Heavy Rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and Relationship with Flood Risk