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Land management impacts atmospheric boundary layer processes, and recent trends reducing the practice of summer fallow have led to increases in precipitation and decreases in temperature in the Canadian Prairie provinces during summer. It is unclear if such trends also impact the hydrometeorology of the adjacent U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of which have seen similar changes in land management. Here, MERRA-2 reanalysis data, eddy covariance observations, and a mixed-layer (ML) atmospheric modeling framework are combined to demonstrate that the likelihood of convectively preconditioned conditions has increased by approximately 10% since the mid-1980s and is now more sensitive to further decreases in the Bowen ratio (Bo) and maximum daily net radiation in northeastern Montana. Convective season Bo in the study area has decreased from approximately 2 to 1 from the 1980s until the present, largely due to simultaneous increases in latent heat flux and decreases in sensible heat flux, consistent wi...

Surface Moistening Trends in the Northern North American Great Plains Increase the Likelihood of Convective Initiation