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Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets, and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling, and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, future changes of pan evaporation Epan, a measurable indicator for atmospheric evaporative demand, are first projected and attributed over China through a physically based approach, namely, the PenPan model, forced with outputs from 12 state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in Epan projection. The results indicated that Epan would increase during the periods 2021–50 and 2071–2100 relative to the baseline period 1971–2000 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapor pressure deficit over Chin...

Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models