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The Indian monsoon–El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship, according to which a drier than normal monsoon season precedes peak El Nino conditions, weakened significantly during the last two decades of the twentieth century. In this work an ensemble of integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model in the Indian Basin and forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) elsewhere is used to investigate the causes of such a weakening. The observed interdecadal variability of the ENSO–monsoon relationship during the period 1950–99 is realistically simulated by the model and a dominant portion of the variability is associated with changes in the tropical Atlantic SSTs in boreal summer. In correspondence to ENSO, the tropical Atlantic SSTs display negative anomalies south of the equator in the last quarter of the twentieth century and weakly positive anomalies in the previous period. Those anomalies in turn produce heating anomalies, which excit...

Low-Frequency Variability of the Indian Monsoon–ENSO Relationship and the Tropical Atlantic: The “Weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s