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Abstract This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated (i.e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and cali...

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America