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From a basinwide perspective, the dominant mode of Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in September–November (SON) shows an equatorially symmetric east–west zonal dipole pattern, which can explain approximately 13% of the SON TCG variance. This zonal dipole TCG pattern is significantly related to the tripole pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean (IPT). The IPT, which is a combined interbasin mode and presents a dipole pattern of SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño–like SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can influence the local Walker circulation and zonal dipole TCG pattern over the tropical Indian Ocean. Associated with a positive IPT phase, abnormal ascending (descending) motions are induced and favorable for more (less) water vapor transport to the lower–middle level in the western (eastern) tropical Indian Ocean; significant anticyclonic vorticity anomalies are evoked in the lower level over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, and weak easterly vertical wind shear appears over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thus, abnormally strong upward motion, abundant water vapor in the lower–middle level, and weak vertical wind shear are favorable for more TCG in the western tropical Indian Ocean, while the combined negative contributions of the vertical motion, lower-level vorticity, and humidity terms result in less TCG in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

journal of climate

The Zonal Dipole Pattern of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Indian Ocean Influenced by the Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies