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During the strong 2015/16 El Nino, only normal-to-below average precipitation fell across California in the late winter. This disagrees with both predictions by the ensemble mean of forecast models and expectations for strong El Ninos. We examine one of the possible reasons why this event did not bring expected precipitation to California in the late winter. The maximum equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) were located, compared to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 strong El Ninos, further to the west in the 2015/16 winter, which possibly caused less convection in the eastern tropical Pacific and shifted the teleconnection patterns westward in the North Pacific, thus weakening the influences on California. The SSTA and precipitation forecast for February-March-April 2016 based on the North America Multi-Model Ensemble showed large discrepancies from observations with the ensemble mean of most of the models overestimating SSTA in the eastern tropical Pacific and California precipitatio...

Role of Equatorial Pacific SST Forecast Error in the Late Winter California Precipitation Forecast for the 2015/16 El Niño