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This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.A compositing scheme that predicts changes in tropical precipitation under\udclimate change from changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) and\udtemperature is presented. As shown by earlier work, regions of high tropical\udprecipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) are associated with high\udnear-surface RH and temperature. Under climate change, we find that high\udprecipitation continues to be associated with the highest surface RH and temperatures\udin most CMIP5 GCMs, meaning that it is the “rank” of a given GCM\udgridbox with respect to others that determines how much precipitation falls\udrather than the absolute value of surface temperature or RH change, consistent\udwith the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, we demonstrate\udthat the majority of CMIP5 GCMs are close to a threshold near which\udreductions in land RH produce large reductions in the RH-ranking of some\udland regions, causing reductions in precipitation over land, particularly South\udAmerica, and compensating increases over ocean. Recent work on predicting\udfuture changes in specific humidity allows us to predict the qualitative sense of\udprecipitation change in some GCMs when land surface humidity changes are\udunknown. However, the magnitudes of predicted changes are too small. Further\udstudy, perhaps into the role of radiative and land-atmosphere feedbacks\udthat we neglect, is necessary.We are grateful to Richard Allan, whose suggestions substantially improved\udresults. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programmes Working Group on Coupled\udModelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in\udTable 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of\udEnergy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating sup-\udport and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization\udfor Earth System Science Portals. We thank the JASMIN and CEDA team for making available the\udJASMIN computing resource (Lawrence et al. 2013). FHL was part supported by the UK-China\udResearch & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Part-\udnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund; AJF was supported by the NERC PROBEC\udproject NE/K016016/1; RC was supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office CSSP\udBrazi

Land–Ocean Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Linked to Surface Temperature and Humidity Change