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Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreatingwhile the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-artclimate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both theArctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is asmall subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to theobservations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that themodels are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulatedinternal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea icechanges during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System ModelLarge Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a closerelationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and seaice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea iceretreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming thanobservations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimatethe sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warmingin each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea iceretreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This impliesthat the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, wefind that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically correspondswith too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. Weshow that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observedasymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that themodels may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in bothpolar regions.

Sea ice trends in climate models only accurate in runs with biased global warming