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The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramaticsignals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate modelshave struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea iceretreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted tohave decreased in models participating in the most recent phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation ofmodels (CMIP3). Here we examine simulations from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. We findthat simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing,which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of theCMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979-2013global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger thanobserved. We show that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate ofArctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer tothe observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of anapproximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-meansurface temperature. We find that both generations of climate models simulateArctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than hasbeen observed. The results imply that the much of the difference in Arctic seaice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred due to the inclusion of volcanicforcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution.

Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes