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We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model withconstant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\DeltaF_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that thestochasticity provides to the deterministic steady state solutions (perennialand seasonal ice states) is illustrated by examining both the stochastic pathsand probability density functions (PDFs). The principal stochastic moments(standard deviation, mean and skewness) are calculated and compared with thosedetermined from a stochastic perturbation theory described previously by Moonand Wettlaufer (2013). We examine in detail the competing roles of thedestabilizing sea ice-albedo-feedback and the stabilizing long-wave radiativeloss contributions to the variability of the ice cover under increasedgreenhouse-gas forcing. In particular, the variability of the stochastic pathsat the end of summer shows a clear maximum, which is due to the combination ofthe increasing importance of the albedo-feedback and its associated "memoryeffect" that accumulates from early spring to late summer. This iscounterbalanced by the stabilization of the ice cover due to the longwave lossof energy from the ice surface, which is enhanced during winter, therebyfocusing the stochastic paths and decreasing the variability in winter. Theorganizing principle for the interpretation of these effects is a generalizedOrnstein-Uhlenbeck process with a time dependent potential.

Stochastic dynamics of Arctic sea ice Part I: Additive noise