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Prediction of the arctic annual sea ice minimum extent and melting patterns draws interest from numerous industries and government agencies but has been an ongoing challenge for forecasters and climate scientists using statistical and dynamical models. Using the dominant independent modes of interannual sea ice concentration (SIC) variability during September–October, a new approach combining statistical analysis with physically derived links to natural climate variability sources is used to predict each mode and the total anomaly pattern. Sea ice patterns associated with each mode are predominantly shaped by the wind-driven advective convergence, forced by circulation anomalies associated with local and remote forms of naturally occurring climate variability. The impacts of the Arctic Oscillation, beginning from the preceding winter, control the leading mode of SIC variability during the annual minimum. In the three final months of the melting period, the broad impacts of the Indian and East Asia...

Predictability of Arctic Annual Minimum Sea Ice Patterns