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Time-mean, zonally asymmetric circulations (hereafter referred to as stationary circulations) maintain intense hydrologic contrasts in Earth’s subtropics in the present climate, especially between monsoon regions and deserts during local summer. Such zonal contrasts in hydrology generally increase in comprehensive GCM simulations of a warming climate, yet a full understanding of stationary circulations and their contribution to the hydrologic cycle in present and future climates is lacking. This study uses an idealized moist GCM to investigate the response of subtropical stationary circulations to global warming. Stationary circulations are forced by a prescribed subtropical surface heat source, and atmospheric infrared opacity is varied to produce a wide range of climates with global-mean surface temperatures between 267 and 319 K. The strength of stationary circulations varies nonmonotonically with global mean temperature in these simulations. Zonal asymmetries in precipitation increase with tem...

A Mechanism for the Response of the Zonally Asymmetric Subtropical Hydrologic Cycle to Global Warming