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Two theoretical frameworks have been widely used to understand the responseof monsoons to local and remote forcings: the vertically integrated atmosphericenergy budget and convective quasi-equilibrium (CQE). Existing forms of theseframeworks neglect some of the complexities of monsoons, such as the shallowmeridional circulations that advect dry air from adjacent deserts into themiddle and lower troposphere of monsoon regions. Here the fidelity of energybudget and CQE theories for monsoon location is assessed in a three-dimensionalbeta-plane model with boundary conditions representative of an off-equatorialcontinent with a tropical grassland and an adjacent subtropical desert. Energybudget theories show mixed success for various SST and land surface albedoforcings, with the ITCZ being collocated with the energy flux equator but anon-monotonic relationship existing between ITCZ latitude and cross-equatorialenergy transport. Accounting for the off-equatorial position of the unperturbedenergy flux equator is shown to be important when a linearization of meridionalenergy transports is used to quantitatively diagnose ITCZ location. CQEtheories that diagnose ITCZ location based on the subcloud moist static energymaximum are shown to have large biases; accounting for convective entrainmentof dry air by using a lower-tropospheric mean moist static energy provides amore correct diagnosis of ITCZ location. Finally, it is shown that althoughITCZ shifts can be diagnosed by modified CQE and energy budget frameworks,neither can be used in a quantitatively prognostic capacity due tounpredictable feedbacks that are often larger than the imposed forcing.

Improving Energy-Based Estimates of Monsoon Location in the Presence of Proximal Deserts