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The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main mode of tropical intraseasonal variations and bridges weather and climate. Because the MJO has a slow eastward propagation and longer time scale relative to synoptic variability, significant interest exists in exploring the predictability of the MJO and its influence on extended-range weather forecasts (i.e., 2–4-week lead times). This study investigates the impact of the MJO on the forecast skill in Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. Several 45-day forecasts of geopotential height (500 hPa) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecasts are used (1 November–31 March 1999–2010). The variability of the MJO expressed as different amplitudes, durations, and recurrence (i.e., primary and successive events) and their influence on forecast skill is analyzed and compared against inactive periods (i.e., null cases). In general, forecast skill during enhanced MJO convection over the western Pacific is systematically higher...

The Madden–Julian Oscillation and Boreal Winter Forecast Skill: An Analysis of NCEP CFSv2 Reforecasts