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Westerly wind trends at 850 hPa over the Southern Ocean during 1979–2011 exhibit strong regional and seasonal asymmetries. On an annual basis, trends in the Pacific sector (40°–60°S, 70°–160°W) are 3 times larger than zonal-mean trends related to the increase in the southern annular mode (SAM). Seasonally, the SAM-related trend is largest in austral summer, and many studies have linked this trend with stratospheric ozone depletion. In contrast, the Pacific sector trends are largest in austral autumn. It is proposed that these asymmetries can be explained by a combination of tropical teleconnections and polar ozone depletion. Six ensembles of transient atmospheric model experiments, each forced with different combinations of time-dependent radiative forcings and SSTs, support this idea. In summer, the model simulates a positive SAM-like pattern, to which ozone depletion and tropical SSTs (which contain signatures of internal variability and warming from greenhouse gasses) contribute. In autumn, the...

Comparing the Impacts of Tropical SST Variability and Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss on the Southern Ocean Westerly Winds*