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A coupled model framework is presented to isolate coupled instability induced SST error growth in the ENSO region. The modeling framework using CCSM4 allows for seasonal ensembles of initialized simulations that are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal behavior of coupled instabilities and the associated implications for ENSO predictability. The experimental design allows for unstable growth of initial perturbations that are not prescribed, and several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO events that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Without these precursors, however, ENSO amplitude is reduced.The initial error growth exhibits strong seasonality with fastest growth during spring and summer and also dependence on the initialization month with the fastest growth occurring in the July ensemble. Peak growth precedes the peak error, and evidence suggests that the final state error may be sensitive to a sligh...

Revisiting ENSO Coupled Instability Theory and SST Error Growth in a Fully Coupled Model