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Although modeling and observational studies have highlighted a robust relationship between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—namely, that the PMM is often a precursor to El Nino events—it remains unclear if this relationship has any real predictive use. Bridging the gap between theory and practical application is essential, because the potential use of the PMM precursor as a supplemental tool for ENSO prediction has been implied but not yet implemented into a realistic forecast setting. In this paper, a suite of sea surface temperature hindcasts is utilized from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) prediction experiment between 1982 and 2010. The goal is first to assess the NMME’s ability to forecast the PMM precursor and second to examine the relationship between PMM and ENSO within a forecast framework. In terms of model performance, results are optimistic in that not only is PMM variability captured well by the multimodel ensemble mean, but it al...

The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble