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An atmospheric classification for northwestern Australia is used to define periods of monsoon activity and investigate the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Australian monsoon, as well as long-term precipitation trends at Darwin. The classification creates a time series of atmospheric states, which two correspond to the active monsoon and the monsoon break. Occurrence of these states is used to define onset, retreat, seasonal intensity, and individual active periods within seasons. The authors demonstrate the quality of their method by showing it consistently identifies extended periods of precipitation as part of the monsoon season and recreates well-known relationships between Australian monsoon onset, intensity, and ENSO. The authors also find that onset and seasonal intensity are significantly correlated with ENSO as early as July.Previous studies have investigated the role of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the monsoon by studying the frequency and duration of active...

Variability of the Australian Monsoon and Precipitation Trends at Darwin