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Global warming has been linked to systematic changes in North and South America's climates and may severely impact the North American monsoon system (NAMS) and South American monsoon system (SAMS). This study examines interannual-to-decadal variations and changes in the low-troposphere (850 hPa) temperature (T850) and specific humidity (Q850) and relationships with daily precipitation over the tropical Americas using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios: “historic” and high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Trends in the magnitude and area of the 85th percentiles were distinctly examined over North America (NA) and South America (SA) during the peak of the respective monsoon season. The historic simulations (1951–2005) and the two reanalyses agree well and indicate that significant warming has occurred over tropical SA with a remarkable increa...

CMIP5 Simulations of Low-Level Tropospheric Temperature and Moisture over the Tropical Americas