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In this study, the predictability of and parametric differences in the genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) are investigated using 20 mesoscale ensemble forecasts with the finest resolution of 1 km. Results show that the genesis of Julia is highly predictable, with all but two members undergoing genesis. Despite the high predictability, substantial parametric differences exist between the stronger and weaker members. Notably, the strongest-developing member exhibits large upper-tropospheric warming within a storm-scale outflow during genesis. In contrast, the nondeveloping member has weak and more localized warming due to inhibited convective development and a lack of a storm-scale outflow. A reduction in the Rossby radius of deformation in the strongest member aids in the accumulation of the warmth, while little contraction takes place in the nondeveloping member. The warming in the upper troposphere is responsible for the development of meso-α-scale surface pressure falls and a meso-β surface low i...

Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Developing and Nondeveloping Members from WRF–LETKF Ensemble Forecasts