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Global: Zendy Tools annual

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A nnual rankings of global temperature are widely cited by media and the general public, not only to place the most recent year in a historical perspective, but also as a firstorder metric of recent climate change that is easily digestible by the general public. According to observations from NOAA’s Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) 5.0, the year 2018 was the fourth warmest year on record globally since 1880 (see Table 1). The most recent 5 years in the record (2014–18) comprise the 5 warmest years on record, with 2016 currently ranking as the warmest year. Given this streak of record or near-record global warmth in recent years, should we expect each year in the next decade (2019–28) to be ranked among the top 10 warmest years globally? In other words, given historical observations (including the most recent ones), can we assume that near-record annual rankings are already “baked into the cake” for the next several years?. To answer these questions, we analyze the monthly version of NOAAGlobalTemp to select a methodology for projecting the end-of-year (i.e., “monitoring year”) annual global ranking as well as the rankings for the subsequent 9 years (i.e., years 2–10 or “outlook years”). We utilize autoregressive modeling with and without extension of the long-term trend, and also consider an adjustment based on real-time ENSO conditions. In addition, to address the propensity for virtually every recent year to be ranked (at least initially) as a top 10 warmest year, we introduce a “temperature score” product that will allow NOAA to better communicate the coolness or warmth of a recent year versus the long-term trend. To the best of our knowledge, no such projected ranking or temperature score products are currently produced operationally by any other major climate monitoring center around the world, nor are we aware of any research documenting the global annual ranking errors associated with projected rankings of any type. It is our expectation that these new tools will improve the communication of climate change impacts to the general public.

Should We Expect Each Year in the Next Decade (2019–28) to Be Ranked among the Top 10 Warmest Years Globally?