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© 2018 American Meteorological Society For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy. INTRODUCTION. Studies of the climate change influence on the potential for wildfires (bushfires, as they are called in Australia) require an association to be made between meteorological and land surface metrics and wildfire risk factors such as fire weather conditions, fuel conditions, and ignition factors, as well as fire behavior, severity, or extent. Some studies assess the availability and dryness of the fuel or proxies thereof (Nicholls and Lucas 2007; Yoon et al. 2015; Partain et al. 2016; Abatzoglou and Williams 2016). Aspects of the weather of relevance to the potential for fire have also been assessed, including the intensity of fronts or the dryness of the air (Hasson et al. 2009; Grose et al. 2014; Tett et al. 2018). All of these studies found an enhancement of the potential fire danger in some regions due to ongoing climate change. The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) (McArthur 1967) combines an estimate of fuel dryness and the relevant weather features and is commonly used to describe wildfire danger in Australia (Clarke et al. 2013; Dowdy et al. 2010). Such a combined metric has not been used in an event attribution study before. Recently, a gridded FFDI dataset has been developed using winds from reanalyses with observed rainfall and temperature for 1950 to the present (Dowdy 2018). Using this new dataset and an established event attribution technique using a seasonal forecast framework (Wang et al. 2016; Hope et al. 2016) we aim to estimate the influence of increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 on the FFDI in eastern Australia.

On Determining the Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Record Fire Weather in Eastern Australia in February 2017