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Temperatures in the upper troposphere of the atmosphere, near the tropopause, play a key role in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TC) by controlling their potential intensity (PI), which describes the thermodynamically based maximum TC intensity that the environment will support. Accurately identifying past trends in PI is critical for understanding the causes of observed changes in TC intensity, but calculations of PI trends using different atmospheric reanalysis products can give very different results, largely due to differences in their representation of upper-tropospheric temperatures. Without a means to verify the fidelity of the upper-tropospheric temperatures, PI trends calculated from these products are very uncertain.Here, a method is introduced to validate the upper-tropospheric temperatures in the reanalysis products by using the TCs themselves as thermometers. Using a 30-yr global dataset of TC cloud-top temperatures and three widely utilized atmospheric reanalysis products—Modern-...

Validating Atmospheric Reanalysis Data using Tropical Cyclones as Thermometers