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Ten years (1997–2006) of summer (June–August) daytime (1400–0000 UTC) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler data for Houston, Texas, were examined to determine the best radar-derived predictors of the first cloud-to-ground lightning flash from a convective cell. Convective cells were tracked using a modified version of the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm and then correlated to cloud-to-ground lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Combinations of three radar reflectivity values (30, 35, and 40 dBZ) at four isothermal levels (−10°, −15°, −20°, and updraft −10°C) and a new radar-derived product, vertically integrated ice (VII), were used to optimize a radar-based lightning forecast algorithm. Forecasts were also delineated by range and the number of times a cell was identified and tracked by the modified SCIT algorithm. This study objectively analyzed 67 384 unique cells and 1 028 510 lightning flashes to find the best lightning forecast criter...

Radar Nowcasting of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning over Houston, Texas