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The behavior in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) was analyzed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multimodel historical (20c3m) simulations and in modern observational and reanalysis data. The CMIP3 simulations capture the observed trend of weakening of the SASM circulation overthepasthalfcentury,but areunabletoreproducethemagnitudeoftheobservedweakeningtrend.While the observations indicate a slight decrease in SASM-related precipitation, the CMIP3 simulations indicate on average a very slight increase, albeit with very large intermodel and intramodel variabilities. The CMIP3 simulations reproduce the observed negative relationship between the SASM and ENSO. The observed weakening trend in this relationship in recent decades, which has been attributed in some studies to anthropogenic forcing, appears to be well within the variability of the CMIP3 multimodel ensemble. For some models, distinct realizations indicate both strengthening and weakening trends that are larger in magnitude than the observed weakening trend. The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), a subcomponent of the larger Asian monsoon system (Ding etal.2004),representsakeyfeatureofourcurrentlargescale atmospheric circulation. The SASM is characterized by a monsoon trough along the Indo‐Pakistan plains (Blanford 1886), lower-level westerlies associated with the convergence of surface moisture (Joseph and Raman 1966), and an upper-level easterly jet stream (Koteswaram 1958). The strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is often indicated by monsoon circulation indices [e.g., the Webster and Yang index; Webster and Yang (1992)] and monsoon precipitation [e.g., the All-India monsoonrainfall(AIMR)index;seeParthasarathyetal. (1992,1994)].TheSASMaccountsforalmost70%ofthe

Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period*