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With data from 12 coupled models in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate under year 2000 greenhouse gas (GHG) + aerosol forcing was compared with climate under preindustrial conditions. In the tropical Pacific, the warming in the mean sea surface temperatures (SST) was found to have an El Nino–like pattern, while both the equatorial zonal overturning circulation and the meridional overturning circulation weakened under increased GHG forcing. For the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the asymmetry in the SST anomalies between El Nino and La Nina was found to be enhanced under increased GHG, for both the ensemble model data and the observed data (1900–99). Enhanced asymmetry between El Nino and La Nina was also manifested in the anomalies of the zonal wind stress, the equatorial undercurrent, and the meridional overturning circulation in the increased GHG simulations. The enhanced asymmetry in the model SST anomalies was mainly cause...

Changes in ENSO and Associated Overturning Circulations from Enhanced Greenhouse Gases by the End of the Twentieth Century