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Theoretical probabilities derived from a simple Markov chain model are found to agree closely Ivith the empirical values of the probability of precipitation occurrence in intcrvals of various length at Denver, Colo. The purpose of this note is to point out that the prob- ability distributions shown in tables 1 and 2 and fib oures 1 and 2 of the preceding paper by Topil (l) are closely ap- proximated by a simple Markov chain model. Gabriel and Neumann (2) showed that the Markov chain niodel holds well for daily rainfall occurrences at Tel Aviv. They derived from the niodel the probability formulas for various features of the rainfall distribution, but did not give the explicit formula for the probability of rainfall occurrence as a function o€ the length OS period, the dis- tribution considered by Topil. Although the formula can be derived from their equation (12), a simple direct deriva- tion is given in section 2. Theoretical probability curves computed from the formula are compared with Topil's empirical results for Denver, CO!~., in section 3.

A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE IN INTERVALS OF VARIOUS LENGTH