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To study the interannual variability of the Antarctic ozone hole, a physically realistic parameterization of the chemistry responsible for severe polar ozone loss has been included in the GISS GCM. The ensuing ozone hole agrees well with observations, as do modeled surface UV increases of up to 42%. The presence of the ozone hole causes a reduction in lower stratospheric solar heating and an increase in upper stratospheric descent and dynamical heating in the model, as expected. Both the degree of ozone depletion and the dynamical response exhibit large interannual variability, however. These variations are driven by differences in the midwinter buildup of tropospheric wave energy in the model, which affect the dynamics globally for several months according to the mechanism detailed herein. Starting by July, strong tropospheric wave activity leads to greater energy reaching the lower stratosphere, and therefore warmer temperatures, than in years with weak wave activity. The warmer temperatures pe...

Interannual Variability of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in a GCM. Part I: The Influence of Tropospheric Wave Variability