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The paper presents an analysis of the dependence of summertime daily maximum temperature on antecedent soil moisture using daily surface observations from a selection of stations in the contiguous United States and daily time series of soil moisture computed with a simple local water balance model. The computed soil moisture time series are offered as an alternative to Palmer’s soil moisture anomaly (Z) index, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and other such time series. In contrast to other water balance models that have been designed for the computation of soil moisture time series, the model herein is driven by daily rather than monthly data, uses the Priestley–Taylor method in lieu of Thornthwaite’s method to calculate potential evapotranspiration, allows for runoff during dry periods as well as when soil moisture is not at field capacity, includes a crude scheme for taking into account the effects of snowmelt on the water balance, and permits geographical variations in soil water cap...

Dependence of Extreme Daily Maximum Temperatures on Antecedent Soil Moisture in the Contiguous United States during Summer