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Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, an...

Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa