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The potential for seasonal mean predictability over the Pacific and North American regions is evaluated as a function of the amplitude of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature forcing, the phase of that forcing, and the phase of the annual cycle. The potential predictability is measured as the ratio of the seasonal mean SST-forced signal and the internally generated seasonal mean noise. The authors’ assessments are derived from the output of ensemble atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced with observed monthly SSTs for 1950–94. Using a perfect prognostic approach, results are presented on the predictability of upper-tropospheric circulation, North American land temperature, and precipitation. Seasonal predictability is shown to depend on the amplitude of the SST-forced signal, whereas the background noise is largely independent of SSTs. To zero order, that signal grows linearly with the amplitude of anomalous SSTs. An important departure from this is with respect to the pha...

Annual Cycle of Pacific–North American Seasonal Predictability Associated with Different Phases of ENSO