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The authors have analyzed global station data and created a gridded dataset of monthly precipitation for the period of 1900-88. Statistical analyses suggest that discontinuities associated with instrumental errors are large for many high-latitude station records, although they are unlikely to be significant for the majority of the stations. The first leading EOF in global precipitation fields is an ENSO-related pattern, concentrating mostly in the low latitudes. The second leading EOF depicts a linear increasing trend (;2.4 mm decade21) in global precipitation fields during the period of 1900-88. Consistent with the zonal precipitation trends identified in previous analyses, the EOF trend is seen as a long-term increase mostly in North America, mid- to high-latitude Eurasia, Argentina, and Australia. The spatial patterns of the trend EOF and the rate of increase are generally consistent with those of the precipitation changes in increasing CO 2 GCM experiments. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) accounts for ;10% of December-February precipitation variance over North Atlantic surrounding regions. The mode suggests that during high-NAO-index winters, precipitation is above normal in northern (.508N) Europe, the eastern United States, northern Africa, and the Mediterranean, while below-normal precipitation occurs in southern Europe, eastern Canada, and western Greenland. Wet and dry months of one standard deviation occur at probabilities close to those of a normal distribution in midlatitudes. In the subtropics, the mean interval between two extreme events is longer. The monthly wet and dry events seldom (probability , 5%) last longer than 2 months. ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events. Consistent with the upward trend in global precipitation, globally, the averaged mean interval between two dry months increased by ;28% from 1900-44 to 1945-88. The percentage of wet areas over the United States has more than doubled (from ;12% to .24%) since the 1970s, while the percentage of dry areas has decreased by a similar amount since the 1940s. Severe droughts and floods comparable to the 1988 drought and 1993 flood in the Midwest have occurred 2-9 times in each of several other regions of the world during this century.

Surface Observed Global Land Precipitation Variations during 1900–88