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This study presents precipitation verification of individual members and ensemble means in the Taiwan area for a real-time mesoscale ensemble prediction system, during the 2000, 2001, and 2002 early summer convective (mei-yu) seasons. The ensemble system, using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) as a forecast model, consists of six members, each run with a different combination of moisture physics schemes. Precipitation forecasts within the 15-km domain were verified against the observational data from the 342 rain gauge stations on the island. In general the model that utilized the Grell cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and the Reisner I microphysics scheme (the GR model) had the best forecast skill among the six members. This physics combination is, therefore, recommended for MM5 rainfall simulations in the Taiwan area during the mei-yu season. The Kain–Fritsch CPS dominated the rainfall process and generally underforecast rainfall at high rainfal...

MM5 Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts in the Taiwan Area for Three Early Summer Convective (Mei-Yu) Seasons