English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Leslie and Speer (1998, henceforth LS98) examined a case of explosive Australian east coast cyclogenesis using a set of short-range ensemble forecasts. Their paper addresses a very interesting and relevant topic, namely, whether the predictability of explosive cyclogenesis and associated phenomena may be inferred from the spread produced by an ensemble of simulations. By varying the initial conditions in an interior nest, they produced 100 short-range ensemble forecasts (SREFs) of the event. Because the member forecasts were similar to each other and to a control forecast, they suggest that in this case the forecasters might have confidence in a forecast of potentially dangerous land gales. Though I agree with the premise that short-range ensemble forecasting offers the potential to make such forecasts, and that this information would be very useful for this case, these conclusions must be regarded with skepticism. There are reasons other than greater than normal predictability which may explain the noted small dispersion. Specifically, this SREF experiment was conducted in a small domain using identical lateral boundary conditions for all members and with only one-way interaction between the interior nest and the coarse-resolution forecast. These may all suppress the realistic evolution of differences among ensemble members. Further, the method used to generate perturbations for the inner domain may also have contributed to limiting the differences among member forecasts. SREFs are relatively new, and there is limited literature specific to the subject. The interested reader is referred to Brooks et al. (1992), Mullen and Baumhefner (1994), Stensrud and Fritsch (1994), Brooks et al. (1995), Hamill and Colucci (1997, 1998), Du et al. (1997), and Stensrud et al. (1998), and references therein. This literature is mixed, suggesting both the tremendous potential for improving probabilistic weather

Comments on “Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis”