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Islet cell antibodies (ICA) in the sera of nondiabetic relatives of patients with insulin-dependent diabetes (IDD) are predictive of the disease, a finding that permits the design of intervention strategies to prevent it. However, 85% or more of patients with new onset IDD have no affected relative. We therefore screened 9,696 schoolchildren between the ages of 5 and 18 yr (mean age 10.7 yr) in Pasco County, Florida for ICA in three surveys during 1984/5, 1987/8, and 1990/1 and have followed them prospectively. Approximately 4,000 of these children have been followed for nearly 8 yr. ICA titers &gt; or = 10 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation units on replicate tests were detected in 57 of the children (0.59%). 10 children have developed diabetes so far, and all had ICA detected beforehand. The likelihood of developing IDD among the ICA-positive children was compared with 2,959 age-matched nondiabetic first degree relatives of IDD probands who were screened for ICA by our laboratory during the same time period and also followed prospectively. Of 103 (3.5%) ICA-positive relatives, 31 have developed IDD. Life table analysis reveals no statistically significant differences in the probability of developing IDD between the ICA-positive schoolchildren and ICA-positive first degree relatives (P = 0.3). The estimated risk of developing IDD by 7 yr in the ICA-positive schoolchildren was 45% (95% confidence interval 15-74%) compared with 43% (confidence interval 22-63%) in the relatives. We conclude that ICA appear to be as predictive of IDD in low-risk schoolchildren as they are in high-risk relatives. These data suggest that it is feasible to predict IDD by screening a general population of schoolchildren for ICA and that those found to be positive could be considered, in addition to relatives, for intervention protocols to prevent the disease.

Islet cell antibodies predict insulin-dependent diabetes in United States school age children as powerfully as in unaffected relatives.