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The paper presents main results of the analysis of cross impact between two of the ‘big themes’ in the FOCUS project: “EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg Tasks” and “Critical infrastructure & supply chain protection.” The cross impact was evaluated by experts from both EU and non-EU countries. For each theme they were asked to estimate significance and interrelation of trends, thus allowing the research team to identify centres of gravity within each theme. Then they estimated the pairwise linkage of trends from the two themes. The study resulted in identification of key linkages among trends, to be further explored in the analysis of respective contexts, mission roles, and security research scenarios. This practical test of the presented model—having relatively limited number of domains and trends—contributes to the transparency and illustrative power of FOCUS methodology and can be expanded in future studies.

Evaluating the Cross-impact of EU Functions as a Global Actor and Protector of Critical Infrastructures and Supply Chains