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The recent spate of deadly terrorist attacks in Russia has plunged the country into what President Vladimir Putin has rightfully described as a “total war” against the networks of terror. This article will analyze the trends in this war, and will conclude that the logical outcome of the ongoing escalation in number, scope, and cruelty of terrorist attacks in Russia will be an act of catastrophic terrorism. The horrendous hostage-taking drama in the North Ossetian town of Beslan—in which more than 330, including 160 children, were killed—clearly demonstrates that ideologically-driven extremists have already passed the moral threshold between conventional terror acts and catastrophic terrorism. We will demonstrate that networks of these extremists are constantly expanding their capabilities, both organizational and operational, in this total war to inflict damage of catastrophic proportions on Russia either by conventional means or through the use of nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) materials. We will also demonstrate that the most violent and organized of these networks—the anti-Russian insurgents in the Northern Caucasus—are becoming increasingly motivated to resort to acts of catastrophic terrorism, as their current tactics of conventional attacks have failed to have any impact on the Kremlin’s staunch refusal to negotiate either with the Islamist or secular wings of separatists in the region. The hostage-taking drama in Beslan in September 2004 is the latest evidence of the Islamist wing’s preparedness to kill hundreds of noncombatants, including children, as well as sacrifice their own lives as they strive to win

Disrupting Escalation of Terror in Russia to Prevent Catastrophic Attacks