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The species distribution modeling aim is to induce a model to predict the potential distribution of a given species. The model is projected onto a potential distribution map that represents the presence probability of the species at each point. This induction process is related to the fundamental niche estimation of the species, through the search for relationships between georeferenced data of species occurrence and environmental variables. Several modeling algorithms can be used for this task. Providing different algorithms can make the modeling tools more complete. However, an important question arises: what modeling algorithm to choose? This issue is related to the predictive performance of the techniques implemented by the algorithms. In this context, the aim of this research was to organize and to specify a predictive performance analysis method of the species distribution modeling algorithms. Through the proposed method, it is possible to have a complete and structured vision of the steps in the planning of predictive performance analysis of the algorithms. The method may be used as a reference in validation studies of new algorithms, in comparison among techniques and in choosing one or more modeling algorithms. As a case study, the proposed method was adopted in the validation tests of an algorithm based on Neural Networks, developed and integrated into the openModeller framework, which was compared with other algorithms already used in modeling. Besides the validation itself, the tests intended to demonstrate the applicability of the method. The results showed that the Neural Networks algorithm presented similar performance to those of other algorithms and was validated as adequate to the modeling task. Still in the research context, an algorithm based on a sampling technique called the Jackknife was integrated to the openModeller, to be applied in the pre-analysis step. Tests related to the running time were carried out and a parallel version of this algorithm was developed.

Um método de referência para análise de desempenho preditivo de algoritmos de modelagem de distribuição de espécies.