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The Brazilian retail has been experiencing a professionalization process that gradually is getting in line with its market importance. Several years after the initial adjustments post Real Plan, the period between 2000 and 2007 offered more appropriate information to conduct a thorough analysis on the Brazilian retail sales dynamics. The purpose of this study is to contribute with an additional empirical analysis about the consumption relationships, especially those related to retail sales and its connection with wage income revenues, seasonal variables, interest and the conditions of access to consumer credit in the Brazilian economy. This study is based on the consumption theory which derives from the intersection of micro and macro economy. Starting with a set of driving questions about the aggregate behavior of retail sales, the study presents five hypothesis about the relationships between the consumer income and retail sales; the association between sales trends and the innovations in the consumer credit market, interest , seasonality and payment terms and a leverage index that associates credit volume and consumer income. The study developed and tested econometric models of time series in single and multiple equation systems, simultaneous equations, that used the inclusion of self-regressive terms and retarded variables.The time series of retail sales indexes, wage income revenues and credit conditions have been pulled out of the time series available from IPEADATA. The result analysis indicates a long term relationship between retail sales and the wage income revenue, confirming a strong fourth quarter seasonality and Christmas season over the whole year period. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the consumer is sensitive primarily to interest and payment terms and secondly to credit leverage. An evaluation of the feedback function to impulse indicates a sales reaction trend period of approximately five months in regard to interest and leverage and a stabilization trend towards a lower position after the interest impact.

Mercado de consumo brasileiro : evolução e determinantes do volume de vendas. Uma análise do período pós real.