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Use the indexes phenological in models of forecast productivity of coffee tree The early estimate of the production of coffee of the various producing regions is of fundamental importance for the establishment of the coffee policy of the country. Although this, does not exist in Brazil a methodology adjusted for anticipated forecast of the coffee harvest that allows an accurate and precise evaluation. The few information for the establishment of models for forecasting of coffee harvest are consequence of the methodology complexity, caused by the diversity of environmental factors, cultural and economic which should be considered and to be taken into account in model forecasting such as: cultivars , density of planting, age of the plant, technology applied, edafoclimatics conditions, etc.. Therefore the evaluation of the determinative phenological characteristics of the development and the production of the coffee tree is a basic tool in the establishment of models of harvest forecast. Currently the harvest forecast is based on empirical surveys, done visually; requiring people (producers and technical) very well qualified and specialized in the crop to achieve reasonable accuracy. The objective of this study was to develop an objective method to estimate the productivity of coffee without using the total counting fruit in the plant, being based on the use of phenogical indexes of productivity, which are determined from not destructive quantifications, in a reduced section of the plant, and at different times and places of evaluation. The methodology of forecasting the harvest, based on phonological indexes, was developed using data from two different producing regions of coffee of the São Paulo State: Garça/Marília and Campinas regions, in the period of 1999 to 2006. The indexes of phenological productivity 'IFP1' and 'IFP2' were determined by counting the fruit, productive internodes, plant height and row spacing of the crop. The study was divided in two hierarchical levels: “plot and farm”. The obtained results showed that the proposed methodology provided good usage methodology and application in both assessed regions. The number of productive internodes ' NIP ', considering the physiological characteristic of production, used for estimation and determination of the “IFP2”, presented negative influence for the performance of the model. The performance presented by the models based on 'IFP1' has been classified as good hierarchical level of “plot”, in the following periods of evaluation: December, January and March and showed that the best performing models is based on 'IFP2', although a trend of a tendency to underestimate the productivity. It was found a linear relationship and a good correlation between 'IFPs' and the observed productivity, being considered for the level of “plot”, a lower level when compared to “farm”. It has been proven that it is possible to estimate the productivity of coffee, using 'IFP' with up to six months in advance of normal period of harvest (December), with the same level of precision. The variation of the estimated productivity based on 'IFP1' to the level of “farm” was lower than that presented in the visual estimated productivity 'EPVIS', ranging from 0,4 to 20% and 0,5 to 18% during the months of December and March, respectively, and ranged from 3% to 41% for the visual estimation on March. The models based on 'IFP1' at hierarchical level of “farm” have been classified with an optimum performance in order to estimate the coffee productivity.

Uso de índices fenológicos em modelos de previsão de produtividade do cafeeiro