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The Santos-São Vicente estuarine system (SESS) is located in the central portion of São Paulo state's coast and holds a special status for its economic, political and environmental importance. In its draining basin five cities integrate 68% of the population of the third largest metropolitan region in the state of São Paulo, the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, with about 1,500,000 inhabitants. Besides being the most important touristic region of the state of São Paulo, the region holds a large basic industrial pole and the largest port in South America. As a consequence, the area has been occupied by urban, industrial and portuary activities, mainly in the last 60 years. The high increase of demographic density, characterized by urban expansion, led to an irregular occupation of the draining basin, with a strong impact on environment, quality of life and human welfare, since the sanitary services supply has been unable to catch up with the territorial demographic occupation. The present study was sought to assess the degree and the extension of contamination in the water of the SESS by domestic sewage, through the application of numeric modeling, for the analysis of dispersion and dilution capacity of an important biological indicator of water quality, Escherichia coli, present in residual urban waters of domestic origin without a treatment from irregular housing nuclei, as well as housing in urbanized neighborhoods that still don't have sewerage networks. Thus, this organism was used as an indicator to estimate the contamination of water by sewage and consequently the hazards for human health, since sewage also contains other enteric bacteria of pathogens, viruses and intestinal parasites' eggs. Outcomes of sanitary data on occupation of the estuarine system basin pointed at a low level of sanitary servicing caused by the lack of adequate sanitation in the region, including urbanized neighborhoods without sewerage network and a great quantity of precarious housing units near to the bodies of water. According to obtained data, 90% of human fecal-originated residual loads are directly dumped in the rivers and in the estuary without any conventional treatment. Analyzing the results of the two scenarios in simulation of dispersion and bacteriological decay, it was found that the adopted MOHID model reproduced well the results of the measurements campaigns, especially the winter period. The modeling results showed that the high concentration of Escherichia coli might be associated with houses that have no connection to sewerage networks. Moreover, the low microbiological quality of the estuarine waters might affect the the beaches in Santos and São Vicente bay in spring tides, as well as the low balneability indexes all over the SESS. The analysis of results from measurements campaigns and simulations with the model pointed at high fecal coliform concentrations due to dumping of urban effluents without treatment in the channel of São Vicente, in Largo da Pompeba and in the channel of Santos, with largest concentrations in summer. The results show that a metropolitan effort for the improvement of housing sanitary conditions could bring much positive outcomes, since these problems from existing sub-housing units occur significantly in the five towns. The adopted methodology proved to be an effective instrument to integrate the socialeconomic aspects with environmental issues, being useful as an instrument for decisionmaking by local agents and for the formulation of public policies for future actions aiming to the planning of territorial occupations and its necessary infrastructure. In the area of study this method may be of special relevance for the analysis of consequences from the current boom in the real estate sector related to the development of oil exploration in the oceanic region.

Avaliação da correlação entre parâmetros de qualidade da água e socioeconômicos no Complexo Estuarino de Santos - São Vicente, através de modelagem numérica ambiental