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It was raining since March 16, increasing the intensity of the rainfall at 6:00 pm on March 17. The first slopes started to sag in the first hours of March 18, at 1:00 pm, occurred all the debris-flow.” (translated from CRUZ, 1974) The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March of 1967, previously described, resulted from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil. It fosters discussions about probabilities of rainfall events and /or rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality, which approached hydrological, hydraulic and statistical areas, based on past data of rainfall stations and tidal stations in the region of the North Coastal Zone of the State of São Paulo (Brazil). Practical results were used for future designs of macrodrainage, fluvial and maritime projects, that associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of rainfall coupled with their corresponding increase in tidal levels. There were also evaluated studies of the evolution of these events combined over sixty years. Key-words: Maritime Hydraulics, tidal levels, rainfall.

Análise probabilística chuva-maré para a Bacia do Rio Santo Antônio em Caraguatatuba (SP).