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The engineering project is based upon a model that can predict the behavior of the facility to be constructed. Such model incorporates a series of working hypotheses which may or may not be fully realized during construction or operation. Under such circumstances, probabilistic back-analysis is a powerful tool for continuous evaluation of the working hypotheses, during construction and throughout the lifespan of the structure, given that it provides for the formal updating of the initial model and its parameters on the basis of incoming information. This study presents a review of probabilistic back-analysis and a practical application to the updating of the permeability field of an earth embankment, on the basis of piezometer readings. Results of the study led to updating of the parameters of the adopted model, that is, permeabilities of the several materials, while suggesting acceptance of the model itself. A parametric study reveals the relative importance of the several variables involved in the probabilistic back-analysis, thus indicating areas in which complementary research is mostly needed.

Retroanálise probabilista: aplicação prática de análise de percolação em uma barragem de terra.