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GRIGOLON, A. B. Impacts of Transportation and Spatial Growth Patterns Around Major Trip Generators. Dissertation (Master) – Sao Carlos School of Engineering, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos, 2007. The development of cities often leads to the development of large business areas. Those areas, together with the growth of population and vehicles figures in the entire urban area, produce several impacts in the transportation systems. Given the evidences that the location and size of new Trip Generators (TG’s) may be strongly influenced by existing TG’s, the objective of this study was to evaluate that hypothesis in a Brazilian medium-sized city. Two branches of spatial analysis were explored in the present study while dealing with different sources of spatial information. They were: spatial statistics and spatial modeling. Firstly, concepts of Exploratory Spatial Data Analyses (ESDA), like Moran’s I index and scatterplot, were used to characterize regions of similar behavior in terms of particular variables. Secondly, spatial modeling was carried out using Cellular Automata concepts and Artificial Neural Networks. Two models were proposed and applied in a case study carried out in the city Campinas, Sao Paulo, based on different variables. In the first model, only variables representing commercial land use were considered, while in the second model variables representing the transportation infrastructure supply were also added. The results found indicate a good performance of the models, particularly in the validation process. Their future projections, however, are apparently not able to represent the development of new commercial activities that would be naturally expected around the shopping malls investigated. Although that limitation was observed in both models, it was surprisingly more evident in the case of the model with variables of transportation infrastructure.

Impactos dos padrões de crescimento espacial e de transportes no entorno de pólos geradores de viagens