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In recent years, Brazil has experienced rapid growth in credit to private sector, achieving a real growth rate of above 20% per year between 2006 and 2008. An important question is whether this recent increase in domestic credit can be justified by the low initial level of lending, and also by the various changes in macroeconomic and microeconomic environment in the period, or if, otherwise, this growth can be considered exaggerated, with potential risks to the economy. This paper proposes to use two complementary and widely-used methodologies in the literature of identifying credit booms: an univariate method of time series, based on deviations of the credit series in relation to its long-term tendency, and a multivariate method, which seeks to explain the level of credit or its growth as a function of economic fundamentals. The results indicate that there is still some space for credit growth in Brazil, however, a warning sign is given in relation to the rate of credit expansion observed in recent years, which has appeared a bit high, even though no clear sign of boom has been observed. Finally, another important fact found is the issue of the recent economic crisis that has contributed not only to the increase in the sustainability debate of credit expansion in Brazil, but also seems to have contained the excesses in growth rates that began to be observed at the end of 2007.

Avaliação da recente expansão do crédito no Brasil: boom ou crescimento sustentável?