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In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of two important direct income transfer programs in Brazil, the Bolsa Familia and the Beneficio de Prestacao Continuada programs, using a CGE model of Brazil, the TERM-BR. The real value of those transfers between 2005 and 2012 were calculated and the shocks imposed to the model as shocks to household consumption. Three scenarios were analyzed, with different closures. Results show a fall in GDP when the transfers have to be funded by taxes on the domestic economy. Real household consumption increases in all simulations, as well as GDP in the poorest regions, what shows an income redistribution effect associated to those programs. The paper concludes that transfer programs can t be regarded as economic growth programs, but as poverty alleviation programs only.

Impactos dos programas de transferência de renda Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) e Bolsa Família sobre a economia brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral