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The analysis of agricultural participation in the Brazil and USA’s GDP. Organized in two papers, this dissertation analyzes the evolution of agriculture in the Brazil and the USA from 1986 to 2004 and from 1960 to 2001, respectively. Special attention is paid to an econometric analysis of the main variables that determine the participation of agriculture in the Brazilian and the US agriculture. From 1973 to 2001, agriculture had a downward trend in the US gross domestic product (GDP). The same trend had happened in Brazil from 1986 to 1993, but it reversed from 1993 to 2004, what is clearly different from the worldwide trend. Dataset organized in graphs show a steady increase of physical production in both Brazilian and US agricultures during the time periods above mentioned, followed by the increase of total factor productivity. The latter at the USA is closely related to the grants of Federal subsidies. The enlargement of received prices/paid prices ratio in Brazil play an important role in the growth of agriculture’s participation in the GDP, while the downward trend of this variable at the USA helps to explain the decrease of agriculture’s participation in the US GDP. An accounting model is developed to diagnose the main variables that determine the agriculture’s participation in a country’s GDP and an econometric model is derived from this accounting model. Running the econometric model to Brazil from 1993 to 2004, the main variables determining the agriculture’s participation in the GDP (counting down) are: industrial productivity, received/paid prices ratio, agriculture productivity and lagged value of agriculture’s participation in the GDP. The same analysis to the USA, using dataset from 1973 to 2001, shows the main variables to be: received/paid prices ratio, lagged value of agriculture’s participation in the GDP and total factor productivity of agriculture.

Determinantes da participação da agropecuária no PIB do Brasil e dos EUA